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Archive for October, 2007

Psychology Of Great Investors

Sunday, October 28th, 2007

I saw a speech last week by a guy named Mark Sellers, the principal and founder of a small hedge fund called Sellers Capital. While the guy may not be a “household name” he was an impressive speaker and really stood out among the many great speakers I have seen in my time here at [...]

The Best Headline Ever

Saturday, October 27th, 2007

This is really the coolest headline I have seen in awhile… Nintendo to sell Wii in China It represents the future: growth in China + growth in wicked-cool content distribution channels. I went to a talk last week with the new manager of Fidelity’s famous Magellan fund. He said he is not worried about global [...]

The Schism Continues

Thursday, October 25th, 2007

I didn’t realize when I posted Calling Another Top that we would shortly head into a few consecutive bloody weeks. But I guess I continue to underestimate how much people really have faced the fact that we are entering a prolonged period of a credit cycle. Thankfully…I believe the technology side of the economy is [...]

Its Raining Outside

Friday, October 19th, 2007

The fall is officially here in Cambridge and the darkness outside is mirroring the hammering that the stock market is taking today. The financials are getting pummelled in the wake of continuing write-offs and the recognition that people like me are not just doomsdayers for no good reason. In addition, if the stock price is [...]

Bailout Murmurs

Tuesday, October 16th, 2007

As expected the banks announced yesterday that they are banding together to execute the bailout of their structured credit vehicle holding cells (referred to as SIV’s). This article does a good job walking through the implications step by step (thanks to WLH): Enron, Subprime and the Derivative Disease Led by names like Citigroup (NYSE:C) and [...]

Another Big Bailout

Saturday, October 13th, 2007

The poor underwriting standards of lending institutions look like they are about to get another bailout…and this time it isn’t in the form of a Fed rate cut. It now looks like the banks who have been scrambling to figure out a way to refinance special interest vehicles that have suffered substantial losses and still [...]

We Are Not Out Of The Woods

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007

True, the equity markets have rebounded in reaction to the Fed’s cut True, banks have priced and sold a few chunks of High Yield bonds True, the headlines of the economy sound merrier than they did in August Nevertheless, all of these facts do not imply that the massive glut of over-liquidity has finished its [...]

Politics As Usual

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007

I normally refrain from political discussion both out of my disdain for the two-party system and out of acknowledgement of the fact that most people are more rabid with their political views than a dog with a porterhouse… But after seeing all of the ridiculous dialogue in the press about how the GOP’s recent predictions [...]

The Worst Is Yet To Come

Thursday, October 4th, 2007

Although they are laggards, the credit rating agencies, as a following indicator, give us a peak into what we can expect to materialize over the coming six months to a year. When the rating agencies first started to downgrade CDO’s and other asset backed securities this summer, it portended the beginning of a volatile and [...]

Pessimism

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2007

Credit Suisse’s Dougan Says Mortgage Turmoil May Last Credit Suisse Group Chief Executive Officer Brady Dougan said the market for mortgage credit will be “problematic” for as long as 18 months. Bernanke Spoke With Rubin as Credit Crisis Worsened The Federal Reserve’s Aug. 7 decision to keep interest rates unchanged set off a chain of [...]

Observations on the markets and the world with realistic optimism