Taleb says that it is all random and these guys are just lucky; but somehow the fact that this guy left in time to hit a DOUBLE in the last six months on $B’s of capital doesn’t seem lucky to me:

Paulson Hedge Fund Gained 40% in June as Bear, Braddock Sank

I think it was this quote that was the clincher:

“John Paulson, the firm’s president and portfolio manager…previously was a managing director at Bear Stearns”