Struggling to Stay Optimistic

I went to a talk tonight on a talk entitled “The Subprime Crisis, Gold, Commodities and Where the Stock Market Goes From Here” given by a few investors with a collective 70 years of investing experience, and lets just say that it makes this blog sound like a cheery story.

The punch line: we narrowly avoided financial markets Armageddon last month when the Fed arranged the bail out of Bear Stearns and the risk is far from over.

The short-seller and 50 year veteran suggested a variety of things, the most tangible of which is to be long gold as a hedge against hyper inflation and further deterioration of the dollar (just his opinion, not advice). (He is also long GOOG and RIMM. Smart old dude).

That said, spending a good deal of my time on Twitter over the last few weeks has kept me in the flow of optimistic and creative ideas…allowing me to keep my head out of the murkiness caused by headlines like:

S&P may cut $57 bln subprime debt, reviewing loss:

S&P said it is reviewing loss expectation for more than 17 percent of U.S. subprime debt deals issued in the first half of 2007

and

US Foreclosure Filings Jump in March: Foreclosure Filings Against US Homeowners Soar 57 Percent in March; Bank Repossessions Surge

Instead, I am starting to focus on signs of an emerging bottom like this:

Wilbur Ross Seeks $4 Billion to Purchase U.S. Banks

Billionaire financier Wilbur Ross Jr., who made his fortune turning around distressed steel and textile companies, plans to seek about $4 billion from investors including Arab sovereign funds to buy U.S. depositary banks.

And remembering, that God Blessed Texas:
Dallas housing market: nation’s most stable

A recent PMI Group study reported that the risk of U.S. housing price declines remained low in many areas of the South, Midwest and Northwest. Among the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas, Texas cities were the lowest and most stable in risk outlook during 2007.

The objective side of me realizes that there is much more pain to be felt before this is over. But we are still a nation of innovators and entrepreneurs. So I will keep dreaming and keeping hope alive.

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