As the non-spreading containment of the credit markets continues to be isolated to the subprime sector, somehow the Alt-A sector is starting to show visible signs of deterioration.

The fact that Moody’s is already reacting speaks more to the magnitude of the likely issues here than to the risk if the mollasses pace of the agencies in the subprime context is any indicator.

Thus this is not a good sign:

Moody’s Possible Downgrades of Alt-A Trusts

Maybe they noticed that a big Alt-A lender went straight to Chapter 7 today without a thought of reorganizing.
Alliance Bancorp, sister companies file for bankruptcy liquidation

Don’t worry, it is all well contained. Well, some doomsday types disagree:
The Coming Credit Meltdown
Subprime woes spread to loans; stocks next

Who knows what direction this boat is headed, but I for one hope there are life-rafts for more than just the women and children.

Just as I get through a momentary binge of optimism, I am reminded of one of the doomsday speculative scenarios I have speculated with an extensive discussion of the topic on Bloomberg:

Goldman, JPMorgan Saddled With Debt They Can’t Sell

I can’t help but hear the Juvenile inspired, “I heard you takin’ spodie wodie…”

And for some reason, a glance at the Markit ABX charts which KEEP plummeting brings to mind the Ramones…I wanna be sedated.

Thanks to WLH for the downer/reality check.

With all of the doomsday-like gloom chat here, you might think I would be like D.E. Shaw and look for future opportunies in Gurgaon or Mumbai.

But although I contemplated moving to Pune last summer, I am glad I stuck to southern cali where I could become more intimate with the developments in new media and the hedge fund industry.

This guy suggests that Facebook trumps them all with its functionality: Why you can’t compare Facebook to Twitter Pownce or Jaiku

But regardless of whether you like these new toys, or
hate the I Phone, the innovative spirit of this country will keep us booming long after the credit markets implode, no matter what the hubbert’s peakers have to say to the contrary.

So I will keep my eye out and my brain storming here in the USA for the next YouTube (don’t forget it was only created 2 years ago from scratch).

The more I think about it, the more I realize the power of Web 2.0 partially resides in the ability it gives us to self-select into groups of like-minded people who can share and collaborate. One of the best functions in this process is the filtering of the massive amount of information that is floating along out there…

This site helps to filter the filters by ranking the top web 2.0 sites: Listio Top 100

As with anything the rank is only as good as the crowd that votes, but this one seems to be driven by those at the front edge of the expansion in social networking, so it might be legit.

The author of this article flirts with these concepts but misses the filter element as he talks about the need to move beyond Web 2.0. Maybe he is right on. Either way, dreaming is better than not.

This is the first time I have heard anyone in the mainstream media mention the risk of collapse that is inherent in the CDS markets – this market is predicated upon a risk transfer mechanism which implies that there is someone on the other side of the trade willing to write the insurance that you seek. The looming question is: what happens when a few of these overeager underwriters of risk blow up…who is left holding the bag?

Derivatives Banks Concerned by Hedge Fund Leverage

Thanks to the author of the article, Risk, who in my mind did a much better job with this one than the last article I quoted here…though I still can’t get over his name.
The uber-doomsdayer crowd would likely think it was all part of a conspiracy related to the Plunge Protection Team but that would be silly ;).

For those who think that inflation is well-contained please see my earlier post on the linguistic challenges surrounding such words. You may also want to check out the latest from the UN, which suggests that schminflation is causing food to become so expensive that it can’t afford to feed the World any more:

UN warns it cannot afford to feed the world

Silly UN, they should have been long CROX with their funds instead of buying corn…but I guess feeding the world means that you have to buy food instead of stocks. I’d imagine the same is probably true for most of us.

This is becoming regular fodder for skeptical headline junkies like myself who have been watching the slow but ever-present deterioration of the credit markets as reality sets in:
KKR Cancels $1.4 Billion Loan to Refinance Maxeda LBO

…But what shocks me is that the equity markets remain as bouyant as a Barbie in a bathtub: U.S. Stocks Rise on Manufacturing Expansion

Maybe there is something to the idea that a weak-dollar can drive the equity markets both by hitting bogeys on the headline-front (as mentioned in the article) and in terms of asset “appreciation” in dollar terms as inflation is priced through…

Although I disagree with the mentioned criticism’s of Pownce which I thoroughly enjoy, this article also names some other cool sites that are worth checking out if you like Digg . The concept of a personalized filter does sound like an awesome concept, and as I discussed with some friends on Saturday night, it seems like the filtering-function of the Internet may be its most potent power.

Some Diggers Seek Alternatives: 6 Interesting Ones

Speculating about and attempting to predict the future are two of my favorite hobbies, so I enjoy it when I find others who are similarly inclined. The below article walks through some of the most exciting developments that are on the horizon (like in-home IMax’s and nationwide WiMax’s), and some that hopeful dreamers envision for the near future:

Five Ideas That Will Reinvent Modern Computing

This article highlights the creative lead that Nintendo has taken in the evolution of gaming, but one thing that struck me about the story was that the fact that Sony is launching a virtual world of the likes of Second Life:

“Called ‘Home,’ the service will let users create their own digital likeness, called an avatar, then mingle online with other gamers.”

Microsoft, Sony to play Nintendo’s game

So this Friday the 13th, don’t have nightmares about Jason or Freddy – instead dream of the next few decades spent folicking in cyberspace interacting with people from around the globe.